Below, I've compiled the confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths for each state and territory, with comparisons to South Korea (a pretty good outcome) and Italy (a pretty bad outcome). I've plotted the data on a log scale, so exponential growth will look like a straight line but linear growth will look like it's curving downwards. … Continue reading COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State
There have now been two large antibody tests in California to estimate the fraction of the population that has been infected with SARS-CoV-2. This one in Santa Clara County and this one in Los Angeles County. They estimate that 2.5% - 4.2% of Santa Clara had been infected as of April 3 - 4 and … Continue reading Antibody Testing Vs the World
[Update from 4/19/20] Our preprint became available on medRxiv a few days ago here. We've also updated the model with data through April 18th. Abstract We apply a model developed by The COVID-19 Response Team [S. Flaxman, S. Mishra, A. Gandy, et al., “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions … Continue reading Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
What's the infection fatality rate of the COVID-19? First, let's define some terms. Case fatality rate (CFR) is total number of known deaths divided by total number of known cases. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is total deaths divided by total cases. The CFR in Italy as of April 1st is 11.9%. The CFR in South … Continue reading COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate
A long nine days ago, I posted about The Paper from Imperial College London that predicted the US would face 2.2 million COVID deaths if nobody changed their behavior at all. The Paper used a detailed SIR model to simulate how infectious diseases spread through schools, workplaces, homes, and communities in US cities. The headline of … Continue reading New Baseline Coronavirus Model
I'd like to take a moment to sing the praises of Dr. Sara Cody, Director of Santa Clara County's Public Health Department. The San Francisco Chronicle shared a great story about her (stuck behind a paywall here) that I wish had gotten wider distribution. She is, to be frank, an obscure bureaucrat. That sentence may … Continue reading Dr. Sara Cody: Public Health Hero
I've been plotting cases per capita (I've been calling that a "case rate" but learned today the correct term is "attack rate") in US states compared to Italy (as a bad benchmark) and South Korea (as a good benchmark). Some people have noted, fairly, that the testing in those countries is very different. I'm skeptical … Continue reading Comparing Coronavirus Attack Rates
Will summer weather slow down the spread of coronavirus? A pair of MIT postdocs have taken a first, very simple stab at answering that question. Their paper is here. They counted up new cases in different countries or US states in 10 day chunks. Then they made a histogram of new cases versus temperature. 90% … Continue reading Coronavirus and the Weather
[5/6/20 update] Remdesivir The big news since my last update was, of course, the NIH study of Remdesivir. Get the results straight from the horse's mouth here. This isn't a scientific paper, just a press release, but a press release from the NIH carries a lot more weight than a press release from a company … Continue reading Coronavirus Treatments
[Update on 3/21/20] Italy: 12 days into their national lockdown, the number of new diagnoses continues to increase. I'm still cautiously optimistic that the true number of new infections peaked on March 9th or 10th. And I still expect the fatalities per day to trend upwards until April 3rd before dropping sharply. New York: The … Continue reading Comparing COVID-19 Growth Rates
How to 115 