You’re about 100 times more likely to die traveling the same distance in a car as in a plane. See the graph below (made by these people with data from this paper covering the decade 2000-2009). I want to find out if there are choices I can make as an individual to make driving just … Continue reading How Safely Can You Drive?
There was a bit of news on each of three coronavirus treatment fronts this week: hydroxychloroquine, convalescent plasma, and Remdesivir. Remmdesivir At the end of April, the NIH announced that Remdesivir helps people hospitalized with COVID-19 recover a bit faster. They didn't actually share many details in their press release. Now, the peer-reviewed paper with … Continue reading Coronavirus Treatment Updates
There was big news today in the world of HIV prevention. A large randomized controlled trial demonstrated that a new, injectable drug made people much less likely to contract HIV. The drug, called CAB, built on the last major breakthrough in HIV prevention: Truvada. Truvada is a once-daily antiviral pill taken as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or … Continue reading HIV Prevention Breakthrough
A new study, doctors from the Icahn School of Medicine tested for antibodies in over 1,000 patients who had recovered from mild cases of COVID-19. On a first test, they found that 89% of them had antibodies. Two weeks later, they re-tested about two-thirds of the patients who had tested negative. With the additional time, … Continue reading Over 99% of Mild COVID-19 Patients Develop Antibodies
Below, I've compiled the confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths for each state and territory, with comparisons to South Korea (a pretty good outcome) and Italy (a pretty bad outcome). I've plotted the data on a log scale, so exponential growth will look like a straight line but linear growth will look like it's curving downwards. … Continue reading COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State
There have now been two large antibody tests in California to estimate the fraction of the population that has been infected with SARS-CoV-2. This one in Santa Clara County and this one in Los Angeles County. They estimate that 2.5% - 4.2% of Santa Clara had been infected as of April 3 - 4 and … Continue reading Antibody Testing Vs the World
[Update from 4/19/20] Our preprint became available on medRxiv a few days ago here. We've also updated the model with data through April 18th. Abstract We apply a model developed by The COVID-19 Response Team [S. Flaxman, S. Mishra, A. Gandy, et al., “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions … Continue reading Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
What's the infection fatality rate of the COVID-19? First, let's define some terms. Case fatality rate (CFR) is total number of known deaths divided by total number of known cases. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is total deaths divided by total cases. The CFR in Italy as of April 1st is 11.9%. The CFR in South … Continue reading COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate
A long nine days ago, I posted about The Paper from Imperial College London that predicted the US would face 2.2 million COVID deaths if nobody changed their behavior at all. The Paper used a detailed SIR model to simulate how infectious diseases spread through schools, workplaces, homes, and communities in US cities. The headline of … Continue reading New Baseline Coronavirus Model
I'd like to take a moment to sing the praises of Dr. Sara Cody, Director of Santa Clara County's Public Health Department. The San Francisco Chronicle shared a great story about her (stuck behind a paywall here) that I wish had gotten wider distribution. She is, to be frank, an obscure bureaucrat. That sentence may … Continue reading Dr. Sara Cody: Public Health Hero
