There was big news today in the world of HIV prevention. A large randomized controlled trial demonstrated that a new, injectable drug made people much less likely to contract HIV. The drug, called CAB, built on the last major breakthrough in HIV prevention: Truvada. Truvada is a once-daily antiviral pill taken as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or … Continue reading HIV Prevention Breakthrough
Over 99% of Mild COVID-19 Patients Develop Antibodies
A new study, doctors from the Icahn School of Medicine tested for antibodies in over 1,000 patients who had recovered from mild cases of COVID-19. On a first test, they found that 89% of them had antibodies. Two weeks later, they re-tested about two-thirds of the patients who had tested negative. With the additional time, … Continue reading Over 99% of Mild COVID-19 Patients Develop Antibodies
COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State
Below, I've compiled the confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths for each state and territory, with comparisons to South Korea (a pretty good outcome) and Italy (a pretty bad outcome). I've plotted the data on a log scale, so exponential growth will look like a straight line but linear growth will look like it's curving downwards. … Continue reading COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State
Antibody Testing Vs the World
There have now been two large antibody tests in California to estimate the fraction of the population that has been infected with SARS-CoV-2. This one in Santa Clara County and this one in Los Angeles County. They estimate that 2.5% - 4.2% of Santa Clara had been infected as of April 3 - 4 and … Continue reading Antibody Testing Vs the World
Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
[Update from 4/19/20] Our preprint became available on medRxiv a few days ago here. We've also updated the model with data through April 18th. Abstract We apply a model developed by The COVID-19 Response Team [S. Flaxman, S. Mishra, A. Gandy, et al., “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions … Continue reading Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate
What's the infection fatality rate of the COVID-19? First, let's define some terms. Case fatality rate (CFR) is total number of known deaths divided by total number of known cases. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is total deaths divided by total cases. The CFR in Italy as of April 1st is 11.9%. The CFR in South … Continue reading COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate
New Baseline Coronavirus Model
A long nine days ago, I posted about The Paper from Imperial College London that predicted the US would face 2.2 million COVID deaths if nobody changed their behavior at all. The Paper used a detailed SIR model to simulate how infectious diseases spread through schools, workplaces, homes, and communities in US cities. The headline of … Continue reading New Baseline Coronavirus Model
Dr. Sara Cody: Public Health Hero
I'd like to take a moment to sing the praises of Dr. Sara Cody, Director of Santa Clara County's Public Health Department. The San Francisco Chronicle shared a great story about her (stuck behind a paywall here) that I wish had gotten wider distribution. She is, to be frank, an obscure bureaucrat. That sentence may … Continue reading Dr. Sara Cody: Public Health Hero
Comparing Coronavirus Attack Rates
I've been plotting cases per capita (I've been calling that a "case rate" but learned today the correct term is "attack rate") in US states compared to Italy (as a bad benchmark) and South Korea (as a good benchmark). Some people have noted, fairly, that the testing in those countries is very different. I'm skeptical … Continue reading Comparing Coronavirus Attack Rates
Coronavirus and the Weather
Will summer weather slow down the spread of coronavirus? A pair of MIT postdocs have taken a first, very simple stab at answering that question. Their paper is here. They counted up new cases in different countries or US states in 10 day chunks. Then they made a histogram of new cases versus temperature. 90% … Continue reading Coronavirus and the Weather
