Dayton G. Thorpe and Kelsey Lyberger Abstract  We apply a model developed by The COVID-19 Response Team [S. Flaxman, S. Mishra, A. Gandy, et al., “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries,” tech. rep., Imperial College London, 2020.] to estimate the total number of … Continue reading Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

What's the infection fatality rate of the COVID-19? First, let's define some terms. Case fatality rate (CFR) is total number of known deaths divided by total number of known cases. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is total deaths divided by total cases. The CFR in Italy as of April 1st is 11.9%. The CFR in South … Continue reading COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate

A long nine days ago, I posted about The Paper from Imperial College London that predicted the US would face 2.2 million COVID deaths if nobody changed their behavior at all. The Paper used a detailed SIR model to simulate how infectious diseases spread through schools, workplaces, homes, and communities in US cities. The headline of … Continue reading New Baseline Coronavirus Model

I'd like to take a moment to sing the praises of Dr. Sara Cody, Director of Santa Clara County's Public Health Department. The San Francisco Chronicle shared a great story about her (stuck behind a paywall here) that I wish had gotten wider distribution. She is, to be frank, an obscure bureaucrat. That sentence may … Continue reading Dr. Sara Cody: Public Health Hero

I've been plotting cases per capita (I've been calling that a "case rate" but learned today the correct term is "attack rate") in US states compared to Italy (as a bad benchmark) and South Korea (as a good benchmark). Some people have noted, fairly, that the testing in those countries is very different. I'm skeptical … Continue reading Comparing Coronavirus Attack Rates

Will summer weather slow down the spread of coronavirus? A pair of MIT postdocs have taken a first, very simple stab at answering that question. Their paper is here. They counted up new cases in different countries or US states in 10 day chunks. Then they made a histogram of new cases versus temperature. 90% … Continue reading Coronavirus and the Weather

[4/1/20 update] HCQ The first RCT of HCQ as a treatment for coronavirus came out today. It was a small but positive step. 62 patients with pneumonia that was described as "mild" were randomized to receive standard care alone or standard care with a daily dose of HCQ for five days. The patients who got … Continue reading Coronavirus Antiviral Treatments